Where the next prints are landing
Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 2026-06-23. A blank cell means that month's official number is already out. Year-over-year is the headline; the Fed targets PCE, not CPI.
Year-over-year % (nowcast)
| Jun 2026 | CPI | Core CPI | PCE | Core PCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | 4.01 | 2.85 | 3.82 | 3.30 |
Month-over-month % (nowcast)
| Jun 2026 | CPI | Core CPI | PCE | Core PCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
Quarterly annualized % (nowcast)
| 2026:Q2 | CPI | Core CPI | PCE | Core PCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026:Q2 | 6.71 | 3.23 | 5.21 | 3.31 |
Headline CPI is running ~4% YoY (elevated), and the nowcast has June easing slightly to 4.01%. Core CPI nowcast 2.85%; Core PCE — the Fed's preferred gauge — 3.30%, still above the 2% target.
YoY inflation, 2013 → now, with the nowcast tip
Solid lines are the official YoY prints (FRED). The dashed segment + dot at the right edge is the Cleveland Fed nowcast for the not-yet-released month — the leading estimate.
The nowcast updates every business day from ~18M price points, and historically leads the official CPI turning points by ~40–75 days and lands within ~±0.1pp of the release. It's a real-time read on a number that otherwise arrives monthly with a lag.
How this month's nowcast firmed up
The same nowcast, day by day through the current month — watch it converge as new data (rents, gas, etc.) arrives.
What this is, and what it isn't
- Daily, real-time — anticipates the monthly CPI/PCE print by weeks.
- Covers PCE & Core PCE, the series the Fed actually targets.
- Free & credible (Cleveland Fed); now on the Bloomberg Terminal.
- It's a nowcast (estimate of the present), not a multi-month forecast.
- Not on FRED and the site blocks plain fetching — the nowcast here was captured from the rendered page; automated daily capture needs a headless-browser scrape.
- Use it to anticipate the print; for Fed direction the 2Y−FedFunds spread is the cleaner signal.
This is the closest thing to a live ticker for CPI/PCE. The official numbers (solid lines) are the truth; the nowcast (dashed tip) is the best real-time guess of the next one — right now pointing to inflation still near 4% headline / ~3% core, i.e. above target.